November 23, 2020

Try and Keep Up!

Creativity Taken Seriously!

A Curious Path (politics, wallstreet and Covid-19)

Updated 4-8-2020 I’m still researching November 2019 and January 2020. I will review each month as additional events unfold.

A Curious Path to where we are today. What got me to look at everything this way was how democrats responded with their bill and then how the money is being allocated in the final bill.

The reason I’m tying my “look back” to the Covina-19 issues is because they are linked via its affect on the economy. The extreme public/media reaction does NOT match expert predictions of where this will end up. -> Experts <- NOT your personal favorite news media talking heads.

SEE BILL DETAILS

The reason I start this in September 2019 is that the Feds are pumping money like crazy into the markets as if they are trying to fix something. This is a draft the full length is way too long.

September 17. The Fed also began monthly purchases of $60 billion in Treasury bills on October 15 to keep its key interest rate within an intended range.

September 19th Fed pumps another $75 billion into markets — its 3rd straight daily injection

October 30th 2019 Federal Reserve has been injecting capital into the financial system for weeks to calm money markets. But the actions are prompting worry among analysts, portfolio managers, and even Democratic primary candidates.

December 7, 2019 that more than $320 billion of total repo market support from the Fed since Sept. 17. That’s when our central bank began pumping in daily liquidity after overnight lending rates jumped to almost 10% from nearly 2%.

Dec. 7, 2019 The Federal Reserve’s ongoing efforts to shore up the short-term “repo” lending markets have begun to rattle some market experts. The New York Federal Reserve has spent hundreds of billions of dollars to keep credit flowing through short term money markets since mid-September when a shortage of liquidity caused a spike in overnight borrowing rates.

But as the Fed’s interventions have entered a third month, concerns about the market’s dependence on its daily doses of liquidity have grown. “The big picture answer is that the repo market is broken,” said James Bianco, founder of Bianco Research in Chicago, in an interview with MarketWatch. “They are essentially medicating the market into submission,” he said. “But this is not a long-term solution.” But the Fed’s total support already has eclipsed that threshold with the expansion of daily operations, the introduction of longer-term loans, and its balance sheet expansion through monthly T-bill purchases. “This is now far bigger than anyone thought this was going to be,” Bianco said. “I think they’re hoping the market will magically fix itself. I don’t see why it would.” Amid sustained clamor for Fed funding, the central bank in the last two weeks said it would increase two longer-term facilities to help carry borrowers through any year-end turbulence.

The changes came as U.S. stocks fell from November’s all-time records with the I Bryce Doty, a senior portfolio manager at Sit Fixed Income in Minneapolis. “But they kind of have created their own problem.” By that, Doty meant the Fed’s rescue operations have worked in terms of supplying banks with quick and cheap funding, but less so when it comes to luring them back to funding each other. “The big banks are just hoarding cash,” he said. “They told the Fed they have more than enough cash in excess reserves to meet regulatory issues, but they prefer having money at the Fed where they can still earn 1.55%, rather than in the repo market.”

December 12, 2019: The $2.2 trillion repurchase agreement market – part of the inner workings of the U.S. financial system – is facing what could be another strain as the year comes to a close. That could have wider implications than just Wall Street.

12-20-2019: Trump signs $1.4 trillion spending package, averting shutdown The bills included all 12 annual appropriations bills for the 2020 fiscal year that started Oct. 1. They also included a slew of tax cuts, extending expiring and expired tax breaks and eliminating other taxes that amount to an additional $426 billion in lost revenue, bringing the total cost of the in bill to more than $1.8 trillion.

December 23, 2019 The Fed’s repo operations are made only with major dealers, with the banks in turn passing liquidity on to their clients. Heading into year-end the banks may be more reluctant to make these loans, which could leave borrowers struggling to raise cash. Some also fear that structural problems with the market leave it vulnerable to periods of stress

Nov-15-2019 Fed cautions about debt, liquidity issues On debt, the report notes that for much of the recovery household borrowing grew roughly in line with GDP. However, that has not been the case for business debt, which is now “historically high” compared with economic growth. Debt to assets is around a 20-year high, the Fed reported

December 31, 2019, China reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in people associated with the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, Hubei Province.1 On January 7, 2020, Chinese health authorities confirmed that this cluster was associated with a novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV.2 Although cases were originally reported to be associated with exposure to the seafood market in Wuhan, current epidemiologic data indicate that person-to-person transmission of 2019-nCoV is occurring.3-6 As of January 30, 2020, a total of 9976 cases had been reported in at least 21 countries,7 including the first confirmed case of 2019-nCoV infection in the United States, reported on January 20, 2020. Investigations are under way worldwide to better understand transmission dynamics and the spectrum of clinical illness. This report describes the epidemiologic and clinical features of the first case of 2019-nCoV infection confirmed in the United States.

On Jan. 7, 2020, Chinese health authorities announced that they had isolated the virus spreading in Wuhan. This novel coronavirus was named initially referred to as 2019-nCoV and was also called Wuhan coronavirus because the first infected people came from Wuhan City, Hubei Province in China, a city of more than 11 million people and a major transportation hub. On February 11, 2020 the disease was officially named COVID-19 and the virus that causes it, officially named SARS-CoV-2. This virus resembles other serious human coronavirus types MERS and SARS in that all belong to the “beta” subgrouping of virus. The CDC notes that MERS and SARS both began as infections in bats before mutating to infect humans.

International Airlines Group (IAG) CEO, Willie Walsh, 1/9 (9y) RESIGNS

1st case U.S.A : January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever.

1-24-2020 Georgia Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, whose husband is the chairman of the New York Stock Exchange Loeffler and her husband began selling stock Jan. 24 the day she joined a private briefing for lawmakers by the Senate Health Committee that included administration officials leading the response to the outbreak. Her stock sales, totaling $1.2 million to $3.1 million, were first reported by the Daily Beast. In addition to the sales, Loeffler and her husband also bought between $100,000 and $250,000 in Citrix, a firm that makes teleworking software and has seen its value go up as Americans are directed to work from home.

*** California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, and Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe, a Republican, also reported stock sales in the same time period. She denies any wrong doing and was not present at the above meeting. She was unable to attend. *

Match.com CEO, Mandy Ginsberg, 1/29 (health) RESIGNS

IBM CEO , Ginni Rometty, 1/30 (after 8 Y) RESIGNS

HULU CEO, Randy Freer, 1/31 (after 2 Y) RESIGNS

LinkedIn CEO, Jeff Weiner, 2/5 (after 11 Y) RESIGNS

Aurora Cannabis CEO, Terry Booth, 2/6 (+other big cuts) RESIGNS

MGM CEO, Jim Murren, 2/12 (after 12 Y) RESIGNS

Credit Suisse CEO, Tidjane Thiam, 2/13 (after 5 Y) RESIGNS

L Brands CEO, Les Wexner, 2/20 (after 57 Y) RESIGNS

Bowers & Wilkins CFO Gideon Yu, 2/24 (after 4 Y) RESIGNS

Bowers & Wilkins CEO Gregory Lee, 2/24 (after 2 M) RESIGNS

JCPenney CMO, Shawn Gensch, 2/25 (after 9 M) RESIGNS

St. Luke’s Hospital CEO, Christine Candio, 2/25 (after 5 Y) (one of St. Louis’ biggest hospitals) RESIGNS

Cansortium Cannabis CEO, Jose Hidalgo, 2/25 (after 5 Y) RESIGNS

Outdoor Voices CEO, Tyler Haney, 2/25 (after 8 Y) RESIGNS

Outdoor Voices CEO, Tyler Haney, 2/25 (after 8 Y) RESIGNS

Uber Eats VP, Jason Droege, 2/25 (after 6 Y) RESIGNS

Salesforce CEO, Keith Block, 2/25 (after 18 M) RESIGNS

MasterCard CEO, Ajay Banga, 2/25 (after 10 Y) RESIGNS

Disney CEO, Bob Iger, 2/25 (after 15 Y) RESIGNS

House Intelligence Committee, of which Welch is a member, received a briefing on coronavirus from the intelligence community on February 27

March 12, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced that it would offer $1.5 trillion in short-term loans to banks to “address highly unusual disruptions in Treasury financing markets associated with the coronavirus outbreak”: $500 billion on Thursday, March 12; $1 trillion, in two batches, on Friday, March 13; and another $500 billion each week for the rest of the month.

UPS, David Abney, 3/12 (after 6Y) RESIGNS

Microsoft, Bill Gates, 3/13 after forever RESIGNS

3-17-2020: Like many respiratory viruses, including flu, Covid-19 can be spread in tiny droplets released from the nose and mouth of an infected person as they cough. A single cough can produce up to 3,000 droplets. These particles can land on other people, clothing and surfaces around them, but some of the smaller particles can remain in the air. There is also some evidence that the virus is also shed for longer in faecal matter, so anyone not washing their hands thoroughly after visiting the toilet could contaminate anything they touch.

It is worth noting that, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, touching a surface or object with the virus and then touching one’s own face “is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads”. Even so, the CDC, the World Health Organization and others health authorities, have emphasised that both washing one’s hands and cleaning and disinfecting frequently touched surfaces daily are key in preventing Covid-19’s spread. So although we still don’t know exactly how many cases are being caused directly by contaminated surfaces, experts advise exercising caution.

JMarch 17th 2020: Airlines beg for a bailout, but they’ve used 96% of their cash flow on buybacks over the past 10 years. “We cannot afford to wait long for assistance,” the trade association Airlines for America said in a statement, warning that some companies could be bankrupt by June. Over the past decade, major airlines — including Delta Airlines, United Airlines, and Southwest — have used roughly 96% of their cash flow on stock buybacks, according to Bloomberg. By reducing share count, these repurchases have pushed stock prices higher

“96% of airline profits over the last decade went to buying up their own stocks to juice the price – not raising wages or other investments,” Ocasio-Cortez wrote on Twitter. “If there is so much as a DIME of corporate bailout money in the next relief package, it should include a reinstated ban on stock buybacks.”

Even some Republicans came out against the idea of the government coming to the rescue of the battered airline industry. “I do not believe in the bailouts for the companies, period … They are smart people and will figure it out,” Florida Sen. Rick Scott said.

March 18 2020 : Trump signs emergency coronavirus bill expanding FMLA, granting paid leave Families First Coronavirus Response Act

3-27-2020 2 Trillion Dollars Stimulus bill

Big Bussines The bill sets aside roughly $500 billion in loans and other money for big corporations. These companies will have to pay the government back and will be subject to public disclosures and other requirements.

Airlines: About $58 billion is allocated to help airlines stay open. One portion of that money is set aside to help cover employee wages, salaries and benefits divided up as up to $25 billion for passenger air carriers, up to $4 billion for cargo air carriers, and up to $3 billion for airline contractors.

Stock buyback ban: Any company receiving a loan under the program is barred from making stock buybacks for the term of the loan plus one year.

What Is a Stock Buyback? A stock buyback, also known as a share repurchase, occurs when a company buys back its shares from the marketplace with its accumulated cash. A stock buyback is a way for a company to re-invest in itself. The repurchased shares are absorbed by the company, and the number of outstanding shares on the market is reduced. Because there are fewer shares on the market, the relative ownership stake of each investor increases.

Reporting requirements: All loans, their terms and any investments or other assistance provided by the government must be publicly disclosed.

Oversight: The bill creates a special inspector general to oversee pandemic recovery. That person, along with a special committee, would provide oversight of all loans and other uses of taxpayer dollars.

No benefit for Trump: The president, vice president, members of the Cabinet and members of Congress are barred from benefiting from the money carved out for corporations. That also extends to the “the spouse, child, son-in-law or daughter-in-law.”

All businesses: The bill establishes a fully refundable tax credit for businesses of all size that are closed or distressed to help them keep workers on the payroll. The goal is to get those employees hired back or put on paid furlough to make sure they have jobs to return. The credit covers to 50 percent of payroll on the first $10,000 of compensation, including health benefits, for each employee.

For employers with more than 100 full-time employees, the credit is for wages paid to employees when they are not providing services because of the coronavirus. Eligible employers with 100 or fewer full-time employees could use the deduction even if they aren’t closed.

{NOTE According to the ACA:}
}A full-time employee works an average of at least 30 hours per week or 130 hours per month for more than 120 days in a year

3-26-2020 Disney, and Seaworld close parks until further notice. Universal until April 19th Workers have been encourage to file for unemployed.

Feb 10-2020 : Walt Disney Company announced record revenue of 69.57 billion U.S. dollars in 2019, an increase of over 10 billion U.S. dollars on the figure recorded in the previous year, which had formerly been the company’s best year yet in that regard

Feb 26th 2020 : Comcast (parent company of Universal) generated a total revenue of 108.94 billion U.S. dollars in 2019, up from 94.51 billion U.S. dollars a year earlier. The company’s revenue has more than tripled in the last ten years, and in Comcast’s letter to its shareholders in early 2020 Brian L. Roberts termed the last decade ‘among the finest in our more than 50 years’.

Feb 26th 2020 : For the full year, revenue increased 1.9 percent to $1.4 billion in 2019. “We are pleased to report a strong finish to the year with record-setting performance in the fourth quarter and fiscal year,” SeaWorld Entertainment CEO Serge Rivera said

Unemployment is paid by employers. Employers must report and pay federal unemployment tax (FUTA) for each covered employee. The FUTA rate is 6.0% of the first $7,000 of the employee’s wages for the year.

However, employers who participate in a state unemployment program receive a credit against their FUTA liability of up to 5.4%, which means employers only have to pay .6% (or $42 per employee) in FUTA.

When an employer first starts paying into the system, it pays at the “new employer” rate. Once the employer has been paying taxes for a few years (the exact amount of time depends on state law), it will receive an “experience rating.” Employers with more unemployment claims against them will pay a higher rate, and employers with fewer claims will pay less.

March 28 – 2020 The first infant death in the U.S. related to COVID-19 was reported in the Chicago area on Saturday

March 28: The first federal inmate in custody has died from the coronavirus, officials said on Saturday. Patrick Jones, 49, an inmate at the Federal Corrections Institution in Oakdale, Louisiana, complained of a persistent cough March 19. He was serving a 27-year sentence for possession with intent to sell crack cocaine.

3-29-2020 : USA 2,475

3-29-2020: The White House is extending social-distancing guidelines for another 30 days through the end of April.

3-29-2020: The Federal Reserve quickly deployed a half-dozen emergency lending programs over the past two weeks to ensure cash keeps coursing through the U.S. financial system. Now, Congress wants it to go much further, approving $454 billion to reload the Fed’s own ability to lend.

March The U.S. is prepping a fourth stimulus package, perhaps even larger than last week’s $2 trillion package.

3-29-2020 Joe Diffie, a country singer and member of the Grand Ole Opry for more than 25 years, died Sunday in Nashville of coronavirus complications, his publicist announced. He was 61.

CoVod-19 Rates by State

AS OF 3-30-2020

3-30-2020 United States 2,951 AT 448PM

3-30-2020: Three major health insurance providers have now pledged to shield patients from high medical bills if they need treatment for COVID-19. Insurers Cigna and Humana announced Monday that they would waive consumer costs associated with COVID-19 treatment. Last week, CVS Health announced a more limited change — that Aetna would waive costs to patients for hospital admissions related to the coronavirus.

3-31-2020 United States 3,780 AT 549PM

https://apple.news/

4-8-2020 A high-level Small Business Administration official criticized several big banks over their reticence to get involved in a $349 billion federally subsidized small business lending program, in a recorded teleconference obtained by the Washington Post.

The comments from SBA Nevada district director Joseph Amato offer a rare candid glimpse behind the scenes at the frustrations federal officials face as they work with banks to quickly ramp up one of the most ambitious economic stimulus programs in American history. The webinar features Amato talking candidly about the $349 billion program on a Zoom teleconference that was recorded and provided to The Post. https://apple.news/ASPEZrGjFTiiBFxAgXl7lXA

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